Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou - The Breakdown

Never in my wildest dreams would I have said this time last year that I would do a breakdown of this fight but here we are. Anthony Joshua takes on Francis Ngannou on March the 8th in only Ngannou’s second pro fight. I have been motivated to write this breakdown as I came across a poll on YouTube which asked the question, “who wins AJ or Ngannou” and the results were outrageous.

Anthony Joshua has been a professional boxer for just over 10 years now and in that time frame has become a 2 time IBF, WBA and WBO heavyweight champion of the world and having 12 world title fights. He has suffered defeat 3 times in his career, once to Andy Ruiz in a shocking upset which he avenged, and twice to the reigning WBA, WBO and IBF heavyweight champion and former undisputed cruiserweight champion Oleksandr Usyk. Before his professional career he had a prestigious amateur career in which he won the Olympic gold medal for Team GB at the 2012 Olympic Games. Anthony Joshua fought 3 times last year against solid opposition including a 5th round stoppage against a top 10 opponent in Otto Wallin.

Francis Ngannou is the former UFC heavyweight champion and he defended that belt once before leaving the organisation. He had previously attempted a title run and was beaten over the distance. Ngannou has had one boxing match prior to this fight with Joshua and it came in a solid display against WBC champion Tyson Fury in October of last year. Ngannou did better than most people thought however he lost the fight on the judges scorecards. He did manage to drop Fury and showed a solid amount of skills in a boxing ring.

This fight will be dictated by how much AJ feels Ngannou’s power. If AJ is unaffected or can take any punches well, he will counter Ngannou to death and stop him anytime from the 4th round onwards. If he does feel the power AJ will most likely box to a decision or stop Ngannou late. Ngannou does have a puncher’s chance as he has incredible power in both hands however nothing in the Tyson Fury fight would indicate and ability to land that power consistently. He also maintained a very low output in that fight choosing to wait on Fury to engage rather than being proactive with his own offence. He did show a solid chin which held up to Fury’s big right hands however the difference in power is vast when comparing Fury and Joshua. Ngannou has very good physical strength however and in the clinches this will let him control the action. He cannot just stand in front of AJ with collar ties like he did with Fury though as Joshua has an elite inside game and will launch explosive uppercuts and hooks which could end the fight.

Fury in his fight with Ngannou was badly out of shape and was very inaccurate with his punches. His timing was off and due to this he was leaving himself open to counters, one of which put him on the canvas. Anthony Joshua however has fought 3 times last year and is a consummate professional who will come in great shape and will be locked in to get the job done. Fury also showed a lack of conditioning in his fight which stopped him putting on the pressure late and a lack of adjustments in the fight. With Davison in the corner AJ will make constant adjustments to what Ngannou will do and will not let him get the timing on his repetitive offence like Fury did. Fury repeated the same 3-2 combination for most of the fight whereas AJ will mix it up a lot more and the biggest factor is that AJ is a much superior inside fighter.

Francis Ngannou has some hair trigger counters that have been drilled into him well. For his defence he either tucks up in his high guard before throwing a left hook with his opponent or he ducks and rolls while throwing an overhand right. Pretty basic stuff however he is not afraid to throw with the opponent and he stands his ground which can make the counter more effective. He isn’t that fast if a fighter though and even Fury with not great reflexes and a year layoff was able to get out of the way of most punches relatively easy.

The last thing I want to discuss is both fighters chins. Many are picking Ngannou over AJ because “AJ has a bad chin and has problems dealing with power” which could not be further from the truth. Anthony Joshua has been dropped by two fighters in his career with those two being Wladimir Klitschko and Andy Ruiz. In the Klitschko fight he was extremely gassed and ducked into a straight right that caught him clean. In the Ruiz fight he was caught behind the ear when exchanging with the smaller, faster man on the inside and his equilibrium was thrown off and he never recovered. His chin is not awful at all and he has a chin as good as Fury’s if not better. What he lacks however is the recovery powers of Fury as he takes a long time to get back into a fight after being hurt. The notion that he struggles dealing with power is also silly as he has fought many big punchers in his career and has only been dropped by two fighters. Ngannou has shown a solid chin in the other hand but we’ve yet to see him cracked by a real power puncher like AJ.

To summarise I think this should be a relatively straight forward fight for Joshua. He is the vastly superior boxer and  be adequately prepared for the two things Ngannou brings to the table: power and physicality. AJ will counter all night while also leading off with explosive punches that catch Ngannou under reacting. He may get clipped at some point and Ngannou does have the power to hurt him but AJ’s experience will prove the difference maker and he will get through any trouble to win the fight. I think he will be shocked at how strong Ngannou is in the clinch however I don’t expect the fight to have too many clinches as AJ won’t duck in like Fury. My prediction is Anthony Joshua by stoppage anytime from the 4th round until the final bell. I can see him winning a points decision but only if Ngannou proves to have a far better chin than he has proven so far.